15 July, 2017
Extreme heat over the next several decades will make it more hard for full planes to get off the ground, requiring airlines to offload fuel, cargo and at times even passengers to manage smooth takeoffs, according to a study by a research unit of Columbia University released on Thursday.
The study, which appeared Thursday in the journal Climatic Change, estimated that 10% to 30% of fully loaded planes may have to remove fuel, cargo or passengers to fly during the hottest parts of the day or wait for temperatures to drop.
The group's research also suggests that heat waves will become more frequent and annual maximum daily temperatures at airports will increase by 4-8 C (7.2-14.4 F) by 2080.
The problem is in the density of the air: When air warms, it becomes less dense and more expansive than colder air.
Extreme heat is already grounding some flights.
American Airlines canceled 60 flights from June 19 through June 21 when temperatures at Sky Harbor International Airport rose as high as 119 degrees.
"This points out to the unexplored risks of changing climate on aviation", said Radley Horton, a climatologist at Columbia University.
Other times, "it's as simple as waiting for the temperature to cool off a couple degrees", Nolen said.
"As the world gets more connected and aviation grows, there may be substantial potential for cascading effects, economic and otherwise", said Horton, co-author of the study. Most studies so far have focused on how aviation may affect global warming (aircraft comprise about 2 percent of global greenhouse-gas emissions), not vice versa. Rising sea levels are already threatening to swamp some major airports.
Scientists warn that if planet-warming emissions continue unabated, aircraft fuel capacities and payload weights will have to be reduced by up to 4 per cent on the hottest days for some aircraft.
A 4-per cent weight reduction could mean 12 or 13 fewer passengers on an average 160-seat aircraft operating today.
However, if carbon emissions were to somehow be sharply reduced in the near future, those reductions could amount to as little as 0.5 percent. Both mid-sized and large aircraft are affected, and airports with short runways and high temperatures, or those at high elevations, will see the largest impacts.
However, such solutions are unlikely to be implemented, as planes are already highly engineered for efficiency, and there simply isn't room to expand runways in major cities such as NY.
"The sooner climate can be incorporated into mid- and long-range plans, the more effective adaptation efforts can be".
