01 September, 2017
Many analysts expect large, unpredictable storms to become more frequent as seas get warmer.
Peel Hunt analyst Andreas van Embden said the U.S. flood programme bears all homeowners' losses up to $4bn and only transfers 25% of the next $4bn to the private reinsurance market.
There is also the potential for the private insurance and reinsurance industry to take a relatively significant flood related loss, despite the existence of the NFIP, as commercial flood policies in cities like Houston could payout, with commercial flood risks often backed by strong reinsurance arrangements.
Steve Ellis, vice president of Taxpayers for Common Sense, said it would be insulting if lawmakers don't try to reform the program before it expires.
The program had received 35,000 claims from Texas by midday Wednesday, according to Roy Wright, its administrator, who described it as a very fast pace. Congress is likely to reauthorize the program before then because failure to do so would disrupt coastal real estate markets.
"It does not affect ability to accept claims", Wright said. The program already owes the Treasury some $25 billion, most of which covered claims from Katrina in 2005, Superstorm Sandy in 2012 and severe floods in 2016, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which manages the program.
That could set up a hard battle.
The NFIP, which is overseen by FEMA, is the only source of flood insurance for most Americans. However, some state lawmakers are saying that isn't necessary.
"While PCI and our members support meaningful reforms to the program, passing a minimum six-month extension of the program will allow time for numerous claims from Hurricane Harvey to be settled and any ongoing concerns identified and addressed before Congress and FEMA make significant reforms to the program", he said in a statement on Wednesday.
Congress also faces pressure to pass an aid package to help the devastated Gulf Coast.
Donald Trump said the cost of recovering from Harvey - the first natural disaster during his presidency - would be "very expensive" but pledged that "the federal government stands ready, willing and able to support that effort".
Houston has received more rain in the past three days than what CT averages per year.
Leaders in Congress are weighing whether to attach it to another piece of legislation, such as a continuing resolution to fund the government, according to several lobbyists following the issue.
The top Democrat on the committee, California Rep. Maxine Waters, said that the fee and premium increases being pursued were still too much in her view and she encouraged House colleagues to "consider the thoughtful, bipartisan process in the Senate as an alternative to this anti-homeowner bill". Private flood policies, which aren't widely owned, have shorter wait times.
"I think all stakeholders are in agreement that the worst thing there could be is a lapse of the program", Kousky said.
"Even if there was a package of reforms ready to go, (the agencies) are not going to have the bandwidth to deal with some kind of reform package", he said. During a disaster like Harvey, they typically will institute a type of forbearance program on any borrowers who are in the disaster's impacted counties. This is despite the fact that mitigation has a 4-1 payback, Larson said. "That would be tragic for the people affected, but for the effect on the macroeconomy, we wouldn't be talking about it at all".