United Kingdom exit poll suggests PM May's election gamble has backfired

Students at Keele University received their polling cards but were told they were not on the register
Students at Keele University received their polling cards but were told they were not on the register
Author

09 June, 2017

Voters dealt May a devastating blow in the snap election she had called to strengthen her hand in the Brexit negotiations, wiping out her parliamentary majority and throwing the country into political turmoil.

After the election, the right-wing UK Independence Party, which helped drive Brexit, was left with no seats in Parliament.

Who might support the Conservatives?

The first Labour prime minister, Ramsay MacDonald, took office in 1924 even though Labour had fewer seats than the Conservatives and relying on the tacit support of the Liberals. A party needs 326 seats to have an overall majority.

According to the Cabinet Manual, the incumbent PM is entitled to attempt to form a government then stay in office until Parliament meets, when they can ask MPs to approve his Queen's Speech.

While May remains prime minister until a new government is formed, she does not have a clear mandate for her interpretation of Brexit that includes limits on immigration and leaving the single market.

Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, urged May to resign, adding that she should go and make way for a government that is truly representative of this country.

But others seized on this and said he should also quit. May had called the early election in hopes of increasing her majority. The Conservative leader ran a presidential campaign premised on her repeatedly recited "strong and stable" leadership, which would safely deliver a good Brexit deal to the UK.

Q: What happens if no party is able to form a government? This alliance between Conservatives and the Democratic Unionist Party is not new in British politics.

Speaking Friday morning by phone on Germany's Deutschlandfunk radio, Oettinger said the European Union is prepared to stick to the negotiation timetable but that it would take a few hours at least to see how the results of the election play out in the formation of a government.

Commenting on the Labour Party's result, Le Figaro praised it as an "impressive rebound".

"I am happy @Jeremy Corbyn has managed to remarkably boost the Labour Party's position".

In particular, May was forced to perform a mid-campaign reversal over a policy that would see people pay more towards elderly care - a plan quickly attacked as an unfair "dementia tax". Conducted for a consortium of United Kingdom broadcasters by interviewing voters leaving polling stations, it is regarded as a directional, but not exact, indicator of the result. By contrast, Labour performed far better than expected.

Speaking as he was reelected MP in the London constituency of Islington North, Corbyn said: "Politics has changed".

The exchange rate remains volatile as political uncertainty looms, but GBP is showing slight recovery, and the exchange rate is now sitting at €1.1358 (at the time of writing).

There's also the option of a minority coalition, where the governing party makes a formal agreement with a smaller party but together they still don't have a majority, meaning they have to seek support in the Commons for every vote. "Heightened political uncertainty is a threat to the pound, but in the longer term, sterling could benefit if this leads to expectations of a softer Brexit, although the negotiations themselves remain a downside risk". Instead, the economy, the fate of the National Health Service, and security have been at the forefront - the latter in particular amid ISIS-claimed terror attacks in Manchester and London, which each prompted a halt in campaigning.

Both major party leaders found themselves vulnerable on counterterror issues, with May facing criticism for her cuts to police, and Corbyn facing it for both his votes against some counter-terrorism laws, and his perceived historic ties to Islamist and Irish republican groups.


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