03 June, 2017
It is the sort of decision that Yes Minister's Sir Humphrey would describe as courageous: YouGov has produced modelling which suggests that the Conservatives could lose seats on June 8.
Requiring a majority of 326 seats, the YouGov model puts the Tories on course to win 310 seats, down from the 330 they held, while Labour could boost its number of seats by 28, from 229 to 257. Smaller parties, including the Scottish National Party and Northern Irish parties, could win 83 seats, The Times newspaper quoted YouGov as predicting.
That's not unreasonable, although the Yougov model is different from a traditional poll in that it involves seeking data constituency by constituency.
But if she does not handsomely beat the 12-seat majority her predecessor David Cameron won in 2015, her electoral gamble will have failed and her authority could be undermined just as she enters formal Brexit negotiations.
The euro ticked lower as traders awaited inflation data for further clues on economic recovery in Europe, while the dollar recovered some ground against the yen.
Sterling is now trading 1% above this morning's lows, when it was testing levels not seen since Theresa May called the snap election in April. Other pollsters still expect a hefty Tory majority.
The gains didn't last long, however, as a separate YouGov poll on Wednesday night showed the Conservatives had a slender 3 point lead over Labour.
The Survation poll was conducted on May 26 and May 27 in the aftermath of a suicide bombing which killed 22 people in Manchester last Monday and following a government U-turn on unpopular proposals to make elderly people pay more toward their care.
What has the reaction been to the YouGov projection?
Of course if YouGov's projection is accurate it would be disastrous for Theresa May who called a snap General Election in the hope to give the Conservatives a greater majority in Parliament, and provide "stability and strong leadership" as the United Kingdom enters negotiations to leave the European Union. Measures of expected volatility in sterling that cover the election are jumping, while last week's drop against the dollar was the pound's worst this year.
YouGov acknowledged that its predictions were controversial and suggested big swings in the usual voting patterns for many Britons.
A good night for the Tories could see Mrs May's party pick up 345 seats - a net gain of 15 but still well short of the kind of majority she would have hoped to secure following the decision to go to the country.
The pollster's MRP model is based on the fact that people with similar characteristics tend to vote similarly, but not identically, regardless of where they live.
Shakespeare said the figures could change dramatically before June 8.
A new projection by YouGov for the Times finds that the Conservatives are set to lose twenty seats and Labour gain almost 30 seats in next week's general election in a result that would completely defy previous expectations.
