British PM May looks 9 seats short of parliament majority: YouGov

Core Spreads Political Markets
Core Spreads Political Markets
Author

03 June, 2017

"It is the outcome of a model that has used untested methodology to come up with this hung parliament conclusion".

What do YouGov's figures show?

In a speech on Tuesday in Wolverhampton in central England, home to one of the Conservatives' target seats, the prime minister sought to pivot the debate back to Brexit.

If the YouGov model turns out to be accurate, May would be well short of the 326 seats needed to form a government in June, when formal Brexit negotiations are due to begin.

It is hard to say, with any study merely a guide ahead of the big day.

YouGov's model draws on the data collected from around 50,000 panellists quizzed on their voting intention over the course of a week and uses a recently-developed technique called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP).

Their model is based on one they claim to have tested during the European Union referendum which successfully forecast a win for Leave, against the predictions of most other polls and commentators.

If this happened, the Conservatives would still be the biggest party - but they wouldn't have an overall majority.

It is the sort of decision that Yes Minister's Sir Humphrey would describe as fearless: YouGov has produced modelling which suggests that the Conservatives could lose seats on June 8. According to BBC, opinion polls and analysts are suggesting that Labour leader Corbyn is accelerating to surpass May's lead.

The Tories had enjoyed a healthy lead over their rivals in the polls, placing the party in pole position to return a healthy majority in the snap election on June 8. Such a lead indicates the Tories would secure a majority.

Following the 2015 general election, an independent inquiry was commissioned by the British Polling Council and the Market Research Society.

Writing in the Times, YouGov's chief executive Stephen Shakespeare says the model comes with a large margin of error, suggesting that the Tories could still be on course for a comfortable majority in line with some other recent polls.

Conversely, Labour has been making significant progress in the polls in the past few weeks, driven in part by a surge in support from young voters and women.

What could influence the vote on June 8?

He added: "This has been the general pattern of general elections for an age, and whether you believe our poll findings or those of others will depend on whether or not you think Jeremy Corbyn can actually buck that trend".


More news


  • EU, China grab spotlight in climate fight after USA quits Paris deal

    Oil-rich Texas has solar power. "This is not about whether climate change is occurring or not", Pruitt said on "The Lead ". Musk tweeted that he believes climate change is real...and leaving the Paris accord is not good for America or the world.

    Dutch politicians 'deplore' United States exit from Paris climate agreement

    It has overtaken the U.S.in transitioning to renewable energy, generating a fifth of its electricity from renewable sources. That commitment has much of the world now looking to Beijing, which wants to assert itself on the global stage.

    India's environment organisations blast Trump's Paris deal decision

    The agreement has more than 190 countries committed to cutting greenhouse-gas emissions in an effort to combat climate change . Earlier, Vice President Mike Pence said Trump is fighting every day to make America great again.
  • USA: Multistate outbreaks of human Salmonella infections linked to chicks and ducklings

    USA: Multistate outbreaks of human Salmonella infections linked to chicks and ducklings

    Chicks and ducklings can pick up the bacteria from other birds and carry the bacteria in their intestines. Illness from Salmonella usually lasts four to seven days, and most people recover without treatment.
    Relationship with brother cordial: Anil Ambani

    Relationship with brother cordial: Anil Ambani

    At its peak, RCom was a dominant player in India's telecoms sector but is a now small operator in a rapidly evolving sector. However, as per the report, the lenders are only considering holding the equity shares until the debt is repaid.
    Night Shyamalan's Tales From the Crypt reboot gets axed

    Night Shyamalan's Tales From the Crypt reboot gets axed

    There's no news on which pilots or series will be picked up for the block, but Reilly said, "it could be a series order". Two new shows, Time of Death and Creatures , were even commissioned to accompany the reboot.
  • Kirsten Dunst unimpressed by Spider-Man reboots

    Kirsten Dunst unimpressed by Spider-Man reboots

    But according to the film's star, Tom Holland , one of those stunts had a pretty unfortunate result. I wanted to be in that movie so badly.
    Amazon building sorting center in Mobile

    Amazon building sorting center in Mobile

    The project is being developed by Dermody Properties and Seefried Industrial Properties. To learn more about working at an Amazon fulfillment center, visit amazondelivers.jobs .
    Theresa May's lead over Labour falls ahead of vote

    Theresa May's lead over Labour falls ahead of vote

    Pundits predicted she might add 100-200 seats to her side of the House of Commons, and Labour might sink to as few as 150 seats. She has taken a massive gamble in calling this election and with just days to go, she knows the outcome is far from certain.
  • Global Laundry Bags Market 2017- SKUBB, JALL, KLUNKA, Polymark, Coghlan

    Global Laundry Bags Market 2017- SKUBB, JALL, KLUNKA, Polymark, Coghlan

    Appendix - Methodology/Research Approach, Market Size Estimation, Data Source, Secondary Sources, Primary Sources and Disclaimer. The report cloaks the market analysis and projection of "IT Robotic Automation Market" on a regional as well as Global level.
    Trump keeps United States  embassy in Tel Aviv

    Trump keeps United States embassy in Tel Aviv

    Israel captured Arab East Jerusalem during the 1967 Middle East war and later annexed it, a move not recognized internationally. Every president has done this, though President Trump made much of his intention to move the embassy during the campaign.

    UN Chief dismayed over Trump pulling out of Paris Accord

    Former US President Barack Obama speaks after receiving the German media prize ceremony in Baden-Baden, southern Germany on May 25, 2017.