03 June, 2017
"It is the outcome of a model that has used untested methodology to come up with this hung parliament conclusion".
What do YouGov's figures show?
In a speech on Tuesday in Wolverhampton in central England, home to one of the Conservatives' target seats, the prime minister sought to pivot the debate back to Brexit.
If the YouGov model turns out to be accurate, May would be well short of the 326 seats needed to form a government in June, when formal Brexit negotiations are due to begin.
It is hard to say, with any study merely a guide ahead of the big day.
YouGov's model draws on the data collected from around 50,000 panellists quizzed on their voting intention over the course of a week and uses a recently-developed technique called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP).
Their model is based on one they claim to have tested during the European Union referendum which successfully forecast a win for Leave, against the predictions of most other polls and commentators.
If this happened, the Conservatives would still be the biggest party - but they wouldn't have an overall majority.
It is the sort of decision that Yes Minister's Sir Humphrey would describe as fearless: YouGov has produced modelling which suggests that the Conservatives could lose seats on June 8. According to BBC, opinion polls and analysts are suggesting that Labour leader Corbyn is accelerating to surpass May's lead.
The Tories had enjoyed a healthy lead over their rivals in the polls, placing the party in pole position to return a healthy majority in the snap election on June 8. Such a lead indicates the Tories would secure a majority.
Following the 2015 general election, an independent inquiry was commissioned by the British Polling Council and the Market Research Society.
Writing in the Times, YouGov's chief executive Stephen Shakespeare says the model comes with a large margin of error, suggesting that the Tories could still be on course for a comfortable majority in line with some other recent polls.
Conversely, Labour has been making significant progress in the polls in the past few weeks, driven in part by a surge in support from young voters and women.
What could influence the vote on June 8?
He added: "This has been the general pattern of general elections for an age, and whether you believe our poll findings or those of others will depend on whether or not you think Jeremy Corbyn can actually buck that trend".